CODEN(USA): JSERBR Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Forecasting the Epidemic of Ebola

Qi Pengmei, Zhou Lihui
2016 Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research   unpublished
Africa broke out in the history of the most serious viral epidemic-Ebola in 2014. The death rate of 90% has been a great harm to people. Accurate prediction of the development of the virus epidemic is the key to control the epidemic. In this paper, the ARMA, SIR (nonlinear dynamics) and combined forecasting models were established to predict the virus spreading trend in Guinea country. The forecasting results show that the precision of the combination forecasting model is higher than that of
more » ... her than that of the single forecasting model. Combined forecasting model is meaningful for the prediction of the epidemic of Ebola.