Uncertainties in climate stabilization

T. M. L. Wigley, L. E. Clarke, J. A. Edmonds, H. D. Jacoby, S. Paltsev, H. Pitcher, J. M. Reilly, R. Richels, M. C. Sarofim, S. J. Smith
<span title="2009-05-29">2009</span> <i title="Springer Nature"> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://fatcat.wiki/container/ovor77wrhvafrical6dw3wzhpe" style="color: black;">Climatic Change</a> </i> &nbsp;
The atmospheric composition, temperature and sea level implications out to 2300 of new reference and cost-optimized stabilization emissions scenarios produced using three different Integrated Assessment (IA) models are described and assessed. Stabilization is defined in terms of radiative forcing targets for the sum of gases potentially controlled under the Kyoto Protocol. For the most stringent stabilization case ("Level 1" with CO 2 concentration stabilizing at about 450 ppm), peak CO 2
more &raquo; ... ons occur close to today, implying (in the absence of a substantial CO 2 concentration overshoot) a need for immediate CO 2 emissions abatement if we wish to stabilize at this level. In the extended reference case, CO 2 stabilizes at about 1,000 ppm in 2200-but even to achieve this target requires large and rapid CO 2 emissions reductions over the twenty-second century. Future temperature changes for the Level 1 stabilization case differ noticeably between the IA models even when a common set of climate model parameters is used (largely a result of different assumptions for non-Kyoto gases). For the Level 1 stabilization case, there is a probability of approximately 50% that warming from pre-industrial times will be Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (
<span class="external-identifiers"> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9585-3">doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9585-3</a> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener" href="https://fatcat.wiki/release/vjwtciai75ew3ciraqhkuuyzqu">fatcat:vjwtciai75ew3ciraqhkuuyzqu</a> </span>
<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120127145247/http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Data%20sources/WigleyClimChange%20gas%20mixes.pdf" title="fulltext PDF download" data-goatcounter-click="serp-fulltext" data-goatcounter-title="serp-fulltext"> <button class="ui simple right pointing dropdown compact black labeled icon button serp-button"> <i class="icon ia-icon"></i> Web Archive [PDF] <div class="menu fulltext-thumbnail"> <img src="https://blobs.fatcat.wiki/thumbnail/pdf/a6/0c/a60c663031470355e081462343df52fe760300c4.180px.jpg" alt="fulltext thumbnail" loading="lazy"> </div> </button> </a> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9585-3"> <button class="ui left aligned compact blue labeled icon button serp-button"> <i class="external alternate icon"></i> springer.com </button> </a>