PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts

Clifford Mass, Susan Joslyn, John Pyle, Patrick Tewson, Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian Raftery, Jeff Baars, J. M. Sloughter, David Jones, Chris Fraley
2009 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
This paper describes PROBCAST, a web-based portal to probabilistic weather predictions over the Pacific Northwest. PROBCAST products are derived from the output of a mesoscale ensemble system run at the University of Washington, with the fields being post-processed using Bayesian Model Averaging to produce sharp and reliable probabilistic predictions of temperature and precipitation. Based on research by University of Washington psychologists and humaninterface specialists, a web site has been
more » ... onstructed that allows access to key elements of the probabilistic information. The design approach of the PROBCAST system is explained in this paper, as well as some of the challenges for future development.
doi:10.1175/2009bams2775.1 fatcat:rlgwgnpnxjaeppbsbq6xcvz4q4