Predicting the Loci of Solar Eruptions

N. Gyenge, R. Erdélyi
2017 Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union  
AbstractThe longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al. 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast
more » ... hod applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME-capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.
doi:10.1017/s1743921317008006 fatcat:au2qpez72rgarmcz5v7bhssivm