UC Merced Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society Title Is a Confirmatory Tendency to Blame for Poor Diagnostic Decisions? Publication Date Is a Confirmatory Tendency to Blame for Poor Diagnostic Decisions?

Eduardo Hoenkamp, Edward Van Aarle, Edward Van Aarle, Eduard Hoenkamp
2005 Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society   unpublished
In diagnostic reasoning, especially in a clinical setting, practitioners often widely disagree about the causal explanation for a given case. Most studies have assumed that such disagreements result from judgmental mistakes due to biased reasoning, especially the tendency to seek confirmation for a theory or hypothesis they already entertain. Alternative explanations for these mistakes are: confusion about the type of requested diagnosis and a difference in knowledge available to the
more » ... r. The present paper introduces a method to control the latter two factors, for the first time enabling a study of the influence of the first factor in isolation. In the experiment , eighteen advanced postgraduate practitioners made a diagnosis in interaction with a computer program simulating various reading impairments. We found two surprising results: First, the confirmatory tendency was not as prevalent as commonly assumed and second, more important, that where it was employed it was conducive to sound diagnostic decisions.
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