An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast

S. Alessandrini, L. Delle Monache, S. Sperati, G. Cervone
2015 Applied Energy  
h i g h l i g h t s A novel method for solar power probabilistic forecasting is proposed. The forecast accuracy does not depend on the nominal power. The impact of climatology on forecast accuracy is evaluated. consistency, reliability, resolution and skill. The AnEn performs as well as QR for common events, by providing predictions with similar reliability, resolution and sharpness, while it exhibits more skill for rare events and during hours with a low solar elevation.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.011 fatcat:mw42duz2lfavlcwyckpgl74dsu