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Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms Using An Experiment-Based Multi-Agent Simulation
ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann
Prediction markets are an interesting instrument to draw on the "wisdom of the crowds", e.g., to forecast sales or project risks. So far, mainly two market mechanisms have been implemented in prediction markets, the continuous double auction and logarithmic market scoring rule. However, the effects of the choice between these two market mechanisms on relevant variables such as prediction market accuracy are not fully understood. These effects are relevant as faulty prediction market outcomesdoi:10.7148/2012-0654-0661 dblp:conf/ecms/KlingertM12 fatcat:jvwg5m44qfdufpvptd5q53jueu