The potential distribution of Chiranthodendron pentadactylon (Malvaceae) through time: Phylogeography revisited and predicted environmental suitability under alternative future climate change scenarios [post]

Diana Hernandez Langford, Jaime Escoto Moreno, Joaquín Sosa Ramírez
2021 unpublished
Aim: Mexican hand tree Chiranthodendron pentadactylon is an evergreen temperate tree species restricted to cloud forests and pine-oak forests of southern Mexico, Guatemala and possibly Honduras. Climate is believed to significantly contribute to the species establishment, viability and distribution. Insights into the impact of climate change on the species potential distribution throughout time were approached by ecological niche modeling tools. Location: Southern Mexico, Guatemala and
more » ... Methods: Past (Last Interglacial 120-140 KA, Last Glacial Maximum 22 KA, Mid-Holocene 6 KA), historical (1910-2009) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) potential distributions and corresponding environmental suitability were modelled using the Maximum Entropy algorithm. Current (historical) models were based on the most up to date historical environmental variables and constituted the baseline for past and future projections. Past predictions are revisited in a phylogeographic context. Future predictions were made for four different emissions scenarios. Results: Increase in potential distribution range comes about during cold and humid periods but higher suitability possibly relates to humid conditions. Potential distribution alongside environmental suitability diminishes during warm and dry periods. Future climate change implies warmer periods whence environmental suitability declines following a linear trend. Main conclusions: Future warmer conditions are predicted to linearly reduce environmental suitability throughout time. Biotic and anthropogenic factors further threaten the species distribution. Demographic trends and genetic diversity estimated through a recent phylogeographic study, complement the statement that populations viability is increasingly being threatened by current and future climate change, underscoring the need for the implementation of conservation actions.
doi:10.22541/au.163904275.55900059/v1 fatcat:w3x5ilnahneates7ykvnjrrkke