Volatility Model With Markov Regime Switching To Forecast Baht/Usd

N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham
2014 Zenodo  
In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.
doi:10.5281/zenodo.1092515 fatcat:7bul27bvbrenhjiu2qjxgo3glu