Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network

Eunchang Lee, Yongtae Park, Jong Gye Shin
2009 Expert systems with applications  
Keywords: Risk management in large engineering projects Shipbuilding industry Bayesian belief network a b s t r a c t This paper presents a scheme for large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network and applies it to the Korean shipbuilding industry. Twenty-six different risks were deduced from expert interviews and a literature review. A survey analysis was conducted on 252 experts from 11 major Korean shipbuilding companies in April 2007. The overall major risks were
more » ... design change, design manpower, and raw material supply as internal risks, and exchange rate as external risk in both large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies. Differences of project performance risks between large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies were identified. Exceeding time schedule and specification discontent were more important to large-scale shipbuilding companies, while exceeding budget and exceeding time schedule were more important to medium-sized shipbuilding companies. The change of project performance risks was measured by risk reduction activities of quality management, and strikes at headquarters and subcontractors, in both large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies. The research results should be valuable in enabling industrial participants to manage their large engineering project risks and in extending our understanding of Korean shipbuilding risks.
doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2008.07.057 fatcat:we3vh3gh2zgebnvw3udxllfhzu