Safety and sensitivity analysis of the advanced airspace concept for nextgen

John Shortle, Lance Sherry, Arash Yousefi, Richard Xie
2012 2012 Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference  
This paper presents a model and methodology for a safety and sensitivity analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept. This analysis is part of a larger effort to analyze safety-capacity tradeoffs in NextGen concepts. A key part of the model is the definition of a dynamic event tree, which is like a standard event tree, but also includes the dimension of time in the state-space description. The model is constructed and evaluated in an automated fashion based on a set of input tables. Thus, changes
more » ... to the model are easily implemented and results are automatically re-computed. The analytical implementation can be evaluated fairly quickly (a couple seconds per evaluation). A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the transponder failure probability is a critical model parameter.
doi:10.1109/icnsurv.2012.6218434 fatcat:zqtx5uteknhdhkaj6uv6n5tvom