Terrorism Threat Level in the Context of Modeling the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators

Victor Merkuryev, Mikhail Ulyanov, Elena Gorshechnikova
2020 Всероссийский криминологический журнал  
The authors call terrorism a global threat and point out the necessity of studying this negative phenomenon on the basis of empirical data while taking into consideration regional specifics. They use the methodology of cluster analysis (SPSS Statistics software) of statistical data on the number of terrorism crimes to analyze the spread of this threat on the territory of the Russian Federation. Three centers of terrorism tensions have been identified: North Caucasian Federal District, Moscow
more » ... District, Moscow and the Republic of Tatarstan. Besides, the authors attempted to establish a linear dependence between the dynamics of terrorism crimes and such factors as socio-economic situation and migration. The calculations showed that there is no cause-and-effect link between material status and terrorism. The socio-economic situation is not the key factor that creates the condition of terrorism threat, although its impact is considerate. This is equally just for the above-mentioned centers of tensions. Foreign researcher of this problem come to similar conclusions. Besides, the correlation between the migration coefficient (increase per 100 th. inhabitants) and the level of terrorism crimes has not been proven. At the same time, it is mentioned that the insufficiently external and internal migration processes influence the spread of extremism ideology. To prove this, the authors present information from the Court Department of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, according to which in recent years the number of foreign citizens who commit terrorism crimes has been steadily growing, and they have been involved in practically all types of terrorism crimes. It is thus impossible to identify a single key factor of terrorism. The system determining terrorism crimes consists of a complex interaction of negative processes in all spheres of public life (economic, social, governance, ideological, criminal), which is reflected in the psychological state of society as a whole. It is expedient to pay special attention to the analysis of the personality of terrorists as well as persons who get involved in terrorism activities.
doi:10.17150/2500-4255.2020.14(5).676-686 fatcat:p5kihuknsvh65b3ku6nz2aiyka