EXTRA TREES METHOD FOR STOCK PRICE FORECASTING WITH ROLLING ORIGIN ACCURACY EVALUATION

Dani Al Mahkya, Khairil Anwar Notodiputro, Bagus Sartono
2022 Media statistika  
Stock is an investment instrument that has risk in its management. One effort to minimize this risk is to model and make further forecasts of stock price movements. Time series data forecasting with autoregressive models is often found in several cases with the most popular approach being the ARIMA model. The tree-based method is one of the algorithms that can be used to forecast both in classification and regression. One ensemble approach to tree-based methods is Extra Trees. This study aims
more » ... forecast using the Extra Trees algorithm by evaluating forecasting accuracy with Rolling Forecast Origin on BRMS stock price data. Based on the results obtained, it is known that Extra Trees produces a fairly good accuracy for forecasting up to 6 days after training data with a MAPE of less than 0.1%.
doi:10.14710/medstat.15.1.36-47 fatcat:46oafnwifvbr3oz7du5bje6kyy