Methods and Models for Risk Analysis of External Unlawful Acts at Oil and Gas Facilities

2020 Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium   unpublished
The experience of last decades shows that the share of losses of producer companies is increasing in the world because of actions of international organized criminal groups. This threat mainly touches on politically unstable regions, however a perspective development of a fuel and energy complex (FEC) different countries raise new demands to safety and functioning reliability of FEC objects and, first of all, objects of oil and gas industry. The primary objective of any protection system is
more » ... ction system is finding and prevention of attempts of commitment of illegal actions concerning property of physical persons and information. The so-called principle of acceptable equal risk included in supply of security of oil and gas objects located in the high sea and on off-shore at the level defined from a condition equal (with other objects) for the proprietor of risk of its destruction (the functioning termination) is put in a basis of the technical approach offered in the paper. By risk, we mean a probable damage (negative consequences) for the state and the proprietor of the objects, come out due to illegal actions concerning considered object. This risk is characterized by product probability of achievement of the purpose of illegal actions (index of object vulnerability) on the average damage caused by these actions. The factor of risk of illegal actions on sea and offshore oil and gas objects is the basic factor of efficiency of realization of the actions directed on supply of their protection. When considering diversions concerning modern technological objects statistics methods are little applicable: purposeful character of actions, presence of huge number of purposes, specificity of a situation, awareness of infringers don't allow somehow to predict place, time, character and scale of the next action. Moreover, infringers "study", accumulate experience of carrying out of successful/unsuccessful operations, and, thereby, don't repeat the errors and inefficient actions made by them (so-called intellectual terrorism). Considering it, happened deliberate actions should be considered only in the aspect of definition of existing character and possibility of definition of development trends. For example, from the fact, that infringers have spent rather limited number of actions against platforms, doesn't follow that in the long term during rather limited time series of actions against the given objects can't begin. Owing to said, for forecasting of character and possible scales of losses from diversions the principle of «full pessimism» can be used at which it is considered that against considered objects all technical means and forces which are available for terrorists for carrying out of operations in the sea, off-shore and in ports can be used. Rating features on degree of potential danger should be based on prior estimation of full damage for the interested subject in case of destruction (or functioning terminations) considered objects as a result of illegal action which is carried out under the most adverse scenario. The comparative analysis of models of the infringer, with reference to exploration objects, allows allocating models of the following 4 types: actions against sea stationary surface object to which actions in regard to production platforms, floating storages and ships for overloading of liquid hydrocarbons are considered;
doi:10.21467/abstracts.93.103 fatcat:hh2k6sj4lfc4xa3imjzikqetp4