Forecasting dynamic market share relationships

Nobuhiko Terui
2000 Marketing Intelligence & Planning  
In market share analysis, it is well recognized that we have often inadmissible predicted market share, which means that some of predictors take the values outside the range [0, 1] and the total sum of predicted shares is not always one, so called "logical inconsistency". In this article, based on Bayesian VAR model, I propose a dynamic market share model with logical consistency. The proposed method makes it possible to forecast not only the values of market share by themselves, but also
more » ... ves, but also various dynamic market share relations across dierent brands or companies. The daily scanner data are analyzed by the proposed method.
doi:10.1108/02634500010318610 fatcat:lc7ocwudvjhxdfmjzowjfjtszy