Statistical analysis of seasonally adjusted external trade by commodity structure in 2018

O.K. YELISYEYEVA
2020 Zenodo  
In the current context of the intensification of globalization processes and the development of international relations in the world, the issue of studying integration and trade relations between countries is quite relevant. Foreign trade in goods with partner countries contributes to strengthening Ukraine's external relations with other countries of the world and entering the international market as a full participant, which in turn allows the import into the territory of Ukraine of foreign
more » ... raine of foreign goods of higher quality and standards to meet the internal needs of society. The article discusses issues related to seasonal adjustment of data and sets out the principles and feasibility of adjusting data on foreign trade in goods with a seasonal component, namely: adjusting the value of export–import of goods by annual data. наявThe difference between actual and seasonally adjusted data for the largest commodity groups in export and import of goods is determined and presented in the form of a graphical illustration using the graphical method. The impact of the calendar effect is analyzed and its direct relation to the change in foreign trade statistics is determined. The comparison of seasonally adjusted data on the volume of exports and imports of Ukraine with partner countries by the method of «mirror statistics». It is also proven that such data matching is more accurate because it uses already adjusted data smoothed over the seasonality effect. The results of the study can be applied in the study of the general situation on the external market of Ukraine, as well as the dynamics of indicators. Seasonally adjusted data on foreign trade statistics make it possible to estimate the impact of calendar effect and seasonality on total international trade. Which, in turn, allows you to analyze the dynamics of exports and imports of goods with more accurate, smoothed data and to build more accurate forecasts.
doi:10.5281/zenodo.3829668 fatcat:6ggerle4vjf25onaglbadrpqca