Probabilistic dynamic belief revision

Alexandru Baltag, Sonja Smets
2008 Synthese  
We investigate the discrete (finite) case of the Popper-Renyi theory of conditional probability, introducing discrete conditional probabilistic models for knowledge and conditional belief, and comparing them with the more standard plausibility models. We also consider a related notion, that of safe belief, which is a weak (non-negatively introspective) type of "knowledge". We develop a probabilistic version of this concept ("degree of safety") and we analyze its role in games. We completely
more » ... matize the logic of conditional belief, knowledge and safe belief over conditional probabilistic models. We develop a theory of probabilistic dynamic belief revision, introducing "action models" and a notion of probabilistic update product, that comes together with appropriate reduction laws.
doi:10.1007/s11229-008-9369-8 fatcat:ctu4r3qxivgc7p7tqzu6anckei