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This paper deals mainly with the forecasting of minimum temperatures (Tm) from an stochastic viewpoint. Some appropriate theoretical considerations lead to a choice of those variables significant connected to Tm. Modelling has been carried out for two nearby observatories, one in the centre of Madrid, the other one in the border (Barajas airport). The obtained models allow to show that the significant variables are the same for both locations, but performance in the peripheral area is of adoi:10.54302/mausam.v42i2.3072 fatcat:5v7dt2qps5cqldorljhycv3kku