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Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series
[chapter]

2019
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Demographic Research Monographs
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Since mortality has typically declined, we expect that e x (t) c x (t). We note that even if life expectancies e x (t) have considerable descriptive value, they are of limited direct usefulness in population forecasting. Taken together the values of e x (t) do determine the hazards μ(x,t) for a given t, but if only e 0 (t) is known, then infinitely many patterns μ(x,t)'s would produce the same value e 0 (t). In special cases, such as a proportional hazards model with a(x) and b(x) known), a

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_15
fatcat:bu4bo2squvhnpmzriph4kyrp7q