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Modelling and forecasting temperature and precipitation in Italy
2019
Atti della Accademia Peloritana dei Pericolanti : Classe di Scienze Fisiche, Matematiche e Naturali
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We study the monthly average temperature in Italy for the period 1991-2015. The increase or decrease of the average temperature with respect to the previous year is modelled as a discrete-time Markov chain having four possible states. Similarly, a Markov chain is proposed as a model for the variations of the monthly amount of precipitation. Based on these models, it is possible to forecast whether the temperature and the amount of precipitation are likely to vary significantly in the long term.
doi:10.1478/aapp.972a2
doaj:78f08336ac754d7ca228633052bdc6ac
fatcat:cxtd54nztzdjpdwl4a2donbrb4