DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects

Gholamreza Dehdasht, Rosli Mohamad Zin, M. Ferwati, Mu'azu Mohammed Abdullahi, Ali Keyvanfar, Ronald McCaffer
2017 Sustainability  
Oil and gas construction projects are complex and risky because of their dynamic environment. Furthermore, rising global energy demand has increased the need for trustworthy risk assessment models for such projects that can provide adequate and precise policy planning. Traditional risk assessments in oil and gas construction projects do not consider the interrelationships of factors in the best-fit models. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Analytic Network
more » ... ytic Network Processes (ANP), called the DEMATEL-ANP approach, have been applied to other research disciplines to address this shortcoming. This method is able to construct a structural relationship among the different influence factors to visualize complex correlations. Thus, the purpose of this study is to showcase the DEMTAL-ANP risk assessment model to assess the overall risk factors of OGC projects. This study thus identifies the crucial risk criteria of such projects. Data were collected in 2016 through interviews with experts active in OGC projects in Iran. DEMATEL in this situation is used to determine the interdependencies' relative strengths among the risks. The ANP method is applied to assess the relative importance of the risk factors and to determine the best strategy for implementation of a risk management program. The results presented in this study are a novel adaptation of the risk assessment methodology to OGC projects that determines the important risk factors that directly affect the project success, which in turn helps in formulation of policies for ensuring reliable energy supply planning. 2 of 24 nature [6, 7] . These risks can be economic, political, social, and technical in nature, as well as related to the natural environment and natural disasters [8, 9] . Recognizing the risk related to energy is not only a construction market need, but also it is important to the upstream as well as downstream oil and gas industry sub-sectors [10] . Construction projects play a key role in the sustainable oil and gas supply chain and processing [11, 12] . Due to this importance, governments of developing countries are under pressure to ensure that projects will be finished on time with least amount of risk and uncertainty [13] . A proper risk management strategy leads to lower costs and increases competitiveness in the energy market [14] . Therefore, it's necessary to identify and assess the major risks faced by OGC projects, in order to help companies that plan or work in such projects develop plans to ensure sustainable energy supply chains. Furthermore, recognizing, highlighting and analyzing the important risk factors associated with OGC companies can assist in proper planning, successful implementation of risk management and appropriate responses to eliminate, transfer or control the corresponding risks. The construction industry is widely associated with a high degree of risk because of its nature, process, activities, technological complexity, organization and environment [15, 16] . ISO 31000 has introduced risk as "an effect of uncertainty on objectives" and risk factor has been defined as a fact or situation that increases the possibility of risk, according to Cambridge Dictionary. Factors that increase this risk are a growing number of stakeholders, long duration of a project and interface with a reaction between external and internal environment [17] . Engagement with various participants, such as designers, owners, suppliers, contractors and subcontractors are an additional reason for a high volume of fundamental risks [18, 19] . In the body of knowledge of project risk management, there are a number of orderly and official methods for identifying, assessing, classifying, responding and managing risks during the life cycle of a project [20, 21] . It is a dynamic process that tends to decrease the probability and effect of negative events and promote the probability and effect of positive events [22] to attain an optimal grade of risk elimination, control, and mitigation [21] . Project risk may have a negative or positive impact on at least one of the project objectives, for example, cost, time, quality, etc. [19, 23] . All construction projects contain risk that can be minimized, managed, transferred, accepted or ignored [24, 25] . It is impossible to remove all project risks. Therefore, successful projects are those that identify risks at an early stage and efficiently assess and manage them [15, 26] . On the other hand, a lack of adequate attention and assessment of risk in a construction project is the cause of cost overruns, poor performance, and delay [23, 27] . Unfortunately, construction projects are not as advanced at analyzing and assessing risks compared with many other industries [28, 29] . Lack of a risk management methodology during OGC projects not only can lead to delays and cost overruns but also can be critical for pricing energy policies [13] . Thus, there is a need for identifying the most important group risks and related risk factors because of the effect on construction decision making. Therefore, to increase the chance of success and decrease possible risk in a construction project, the major group risks and uncertain factors should be recognized, classified, assessed and monitored. Recently, several studies have applied Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, such as TOPSIS, AHP, ANP, and DEA, for risk assessment of construction projects [19, [30] [31] [32] . MCDM has been applied in oil and gas upstream and downstream industry as well [3, 33] . These techniques are very useful, especially for dealing with complex problems, complex systems, unclear variables and limited information [23, 34] . Traditional risk assessment in OGC projects has not considered the interrelationship of factors in the best-fit models [7, 35, 36] . The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Processes (ANP), called the DEMATEL-ANP approach, have been applied to other research disciplines to address this shortcoming [37, 38] . According to Fazli et al. [37], the combination of DEMATEL and ANP is the best risk mitigation strategy due to the fact that DEMATEL is able to visualize the complex interrelationships among criteria. ANP assesses the dependencies and feedbacks among factors to select the relative weights of the risk factors. DEMATEL-ANP is thus an effective method that helps managers to select the best strategies to respond to the overall risks effectively.
doi:10.3390/su9081420 fatcat:ofwh5fnq3rborfmmwpevafi6re