Statically Downscaling using different Representative Concentration Pass ways of Emission Scenario; in the Case Wolikite, South West Ethiopia

Moges Molla
2020 International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources  
Nowadays the sign of climate change and its impact is revealing on different natural and manmade systems, in one or other ways. This study mainly deals to develop future climate change scenario for Wolikite using statistically downscaling of large-scale climate variables. Projection of the future climate variables is done by using Global Circulation Model (GCM) which is considered as the most advanced tool for estimating the future climatic condition. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is
more » ... used to downscale present and future daily precipitation and temperature using observed station data. Three future emission scenarios, RCP2.6 (low emission), RCP4.5 (intermediate emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) are considered for three 30 years periods for near term (2020-2039), 2020's mid-term (2040-2059), 2050's end of century (2080-2099), 2080's. The average annual minimum temperature will be increased by 3.3°C, 5.3°C and 9.0°C for rcp2.6, rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenario respectively towards the end of this century. Similarly, annual maximum temperature will be 7.0°C, 6.0°C, and 8.0°C. Under RCP2.6 the mean temperature increases by approximately 2°C at the end of the century relative to the baseline period. For RCP 4.5, which represents the moderate scenario, the projected increase in temperature is around 2.9°C. The ensemble models are broadly consistent in indicating the shortening the main rain seasons that means monomial rainfall shrinks and ranging from over eight months of rain to only three months (JAS) under all RCPs for all time horizon the station which requires water harvesting, effective and efficient utilization of water resource.
doi:10.19080/ijesnr.2020.25.556162 fatcat:dm3g37wgkfeprk5xushxm4ooxm