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Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic [article]

Thomas A. J. Meunier
2020 medRxiv   pre-print

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This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that
more » ... se strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
doi:10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717 fatcat:ehydxlgbhzedzoe7jaqg3ri7eq
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Thomas A. J. Meunier. "Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic." medRxiv (2020)