A participatory Bayesian Belief Network approach to explore ambiguity among stakeholders about socio-ecological systems

Nicolas Salliou, Cécile Barnaud, Aude Vialatte, Claude Monteil
2017 Environmental Modelling & Software  
Participatory modelling often comes with the challenge of ambiguity when diverse stakeholders do not share a common framework of understanding. In this paper, we propose a framework and a methodology to elicit ambiguities among different stakeholders by using a participatory Bayesian Network (BN) modelling approach. Our approach consists of four steps undertaken with stakeholders: (1) co-construction of a shared conceptual model of their socio-ecological system, (2) translation of the model
more » ... a shared Bayesian Net structure, (3) individual parametrization of conditional probabilities, and (4) elicitation of ambiguity for each participant through the use of scenarios. We tested this methodology on the ambiguity surrounding the effect of an ecological process on a potential innovation in biological control, and it proved useful in eliciting ambiguity. Further research could explore more conflictual or controversial ambiguities to test this methodology in other settings. 157
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.050 fatcat:gy6qi5f3wbc5fexad2gazuprzm