Uncertainty assessment in climate change scenarios: a methodological proposal for management of forest ecosystem services

Sandro Sacchelli, Jacopo Bernetti, Augusto Marinelli
2019 Annals of Silvicultural Research  
The work introduces a method to quantify potential impact of climate change on cultural ecosystem services in forests. The technique of Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set is applied to face with the uncertainty due to climate change as well as subjective opinion of forest experts. Two forest management scenario (current practices as well as climate change-oriented silviculture) are investigated for different time horizons. Results highlight the increasing uncertainty on climate change impact
more » ... luation related to longer time horizons. Potential losses connected to current cultural ecosystem services provision are quantified from spatial as well as economic viewpoint. The method is tested for an illustrative example in the Tuscany region - central Italy.
doi:10.12899/asr-1802 doaj:3b2e14b060a54bb29d14a095d977cf6a fatcat:23rcvqnbbbfhhkey7vqnuqcoyq