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Citing recent successes in forecasting elections, movies, products, and other outcomes, prediction market advocates call for widespread use of market-based methods for government and corporate decision making. Though theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that markets do often outperform alternative mechanisms, less attention has been paid to the magnitude of improvement. Here we compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional methods of prediction, namely polls anddoi:10.1145/1807342.1807400 dblp:conf/sigecom/GoelRWP10 fatcat:sjxrx3ueirbu5j65pv25p5vdvu