Clinical and Cost Effectiveness of Two New Lynch Syndrome Case Finding Protocols in Endometrial Cancer Population Contrasted with the IHC-based Protocol [article]

James Michael Gudgeon, Michael W. Varner, Mia Hashibe, Marc S. Williams
2019 bioRxiv   pre-print
Purpose: To investigate the effectiveness and costs of two Lynch syndrome screening protocols among endometrial cancer (EC) patients and compare to an immunohistochemistry (IHC)-based protocol. Methods: Analytic models were developed to represent the two protocols: a brief cancer family history questionnaire (bFHQ) and direct-to-sequencing of the germline. Data from reviews of published literature, augmented by local data and expert opinion were used to populate the model representing the
more » ... resenting the number of women diagnosed in the U.S. in 2018. Multiple analyses employing simulation modeling were performed to estimate a variety of clinical and economic outcomes. Results: Under conditions considered here to be plausible, the bFHQ is expected to miss 58% (min./max. = 24 to 80%) of LS index cases, a direct-to-sequencing protocol to miss 30% (min./max. = 6% to 53%), and the IHC-based protocol based on previous analysis 58% (min./max. = 33 to 80%). When direct costs of testing and genetic counseling are added to the models, the total screening program costs for the bFHQ protocol are substantially lower at all sequencing price points than the other protocols. For example, at the low end of the sequencing price point (ie, $250), the total cost of screening programs for IHC, bFHQ, and sequencing are $22.9 million, $5.3 million, and $13.8 million, respectively. The best estimate of the break-even price of sequencing, when the cost of the program is equivalent between the IHC and sequencing protocols, is about $445. Conclusion: The bFHQ and direct-to-sequencing LS screening protocols are more effective and cost effective at identifying LS index cases than the standard IHC based protocol under the conditions represented in our models. These estimates of various outcome metrics of the three LS index case finding protocols may help stakeholders make decisions of the use of limited healthcare dollars.
doi:10.1101/611541 fatcat:rluzsdmqkfb63ajhukxo7fs5aq