Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands and the EU

Hugo Rojas
2016 unpublished
It is republished here with the kind permission of CPB. CEPS Working Documents are intended to give an indication of work being conducted within CEPS' research programmes and to stimulate reactions from other experts in the field. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of CEPS. Abstract The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a comprehensive preferential trade agreement that is
more » ... e agreement that is expected to have a significant effect in EU and US bilateral trade and investment relations. As the negotiations are ongoing, this paper uses a scenario analysis to estimate the potential effects of TTIP under likely negotiated outcomes. In our main scenario, we assume a final trade deal where current tariffs are eliminated and non-tariff barriers are significantly reduced. Using a CGE model (WorldScan), we simulate the potential economic effects for the Netherlands and the EU. We find that US-Dutch bilateral trade doubles and this is translated into a positive but moderate effect on income of 1.7% for the Netherlands by the year 2030. These potential gains are higher than those for the EU and the US (both around 1%).