Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model

James S. Hodges
1991 Operations Research  
Many models used in policy or s)stems analysis either cannot be validated in an) full) adequate sense. such as bN comparing them with actual data. or could adequately be validated but have not been. For example, in the area of combat anal)sis. the central models are arguably almost entirely unvalidated and most %kill never be susceptible to adequate validation. Neiertheless. such models are often used and can be used fruitfully. even though "~e have no theory for ho'% to use them or hov, to
more » ... rpret and place value on the results they produce. This paper takes a step toward providing such a theory b, focusing on the logic that should govern the use of inadequatel, validated models and the costs and benefits of using them. To this end. it identifies and evaluates six legitimate uses to which such models can be put.
doi:10.1287/opre.39.3.355 fatcat:mts7ze4bxrbbvi2j4ynp2insvu