Predicting Patient Volumes at Collegiate Football Games

Abagayle E. Renko, Joshua M. Knapp, Susan J. Boehmer, Joseph M. Kass, Dylan J. Degol, Jessica L. Mann, Jeffrey S. Lubin
2021 The Journal of Collegiate Emergency Medical Services  
Determining appropriate staffing and resources for mass gathering events (MGEs) such as college football games is challenging. Objective: We sought to create a model predictive of patient volumes at collegiate football games to help aid emergency medical services (EMS) in appropriate health care services planning. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted of patient EMS medical records from 99 Division I collegiate football games played across fourteen football seasons
more » ... 8)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) at one outdoor stadium. A linear regression model with cross validation to the patient illness records was created, using the total number of patients as the outcome measure and variables that can be ascertained prior to game day as the predictors. Results: A formula was derived (R2 = 0.70); predicted number of patients = 1.49 + [5.91 x parking lot hours] + [1.12 x low temperature in °F] + [-12.42, if rain=yes] + [18.34, if snow=yes] + [-15.97, if opposing team rank (OTR) is 11-25; -30.48 if OTR is >25] + [-14.50, if home team rank (HTR) is 11-25; -11.52 if HTR is >25]. Conclusion: Weather data, open parking lot hours prior to kickoff, and team rankings are important variables to consider when planning for necessary medical care at collegiate football games.
doi:10.30542/jcems.2021.04.01.03 fatcat:xnfpjhwl7nb5rknxjswsadr2xe