UC Merced Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society Title Estimating the Unknown by the Hot Hand Belief Publication Date Estimating the Unknown by the Hot Hand Belief

Yanlong Sun, Hongbin Wang, Yanlong Sun, Yanlong Sun@uth, Hongbin Wang, Hongbin Wang@uth
Compared to the gambler's fallacy in which one makes predictions negatively dependent on the past information, in the hot hand belief, one makes predictions positively dependent on the past information. Both phenomena have been attributed to people's misperception of randomness. The present study examines an alternative explanation that the positive dependency in the hot hand belief may be due to people's effort to reduce uncertainty by estimating the unknown probability (common probability
more » ... mon probability estimation), a result known as the Laplace's rule of succession. We report an experiment to demonstrate that the dependency on the history can be reversed from negative to positive by manipulating the participants' assumptions about the unknown probability.