Predictability of self-organizing systems

S. L. Pepke, J. M. Carlson
1994 Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics  
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new
more » ... r based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.
doi:10.1103/physreve.50.236 pmid:9961962 fatcat:g7zn32azn5fafcdwefw2upa7de