Neorealism as a theory of international relations is criticized for its failure to predict a state foreign policy behavior. I argue, by contrast, that neorealism can be used as a theory of foreign policy at the structural level of analysis. Particularly, this study evaluates two neorealist theories -defensive realism and offensive realism, against historical records using a congruence analysis approach. To uncover the neorealist theories' explanatory power, ex ante predictions are generated

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... rding the policy of the Federal Republic of Germany towards the European Economic Community's (EEC) Northern enlargement and the Mediterranean enlargements in the 1960's and the 1970's. The defensive realism's and offensive realism's predictions then are tested against the empirical evidence. The newly declassified archival documents have shown that neorealist theories capture much of the variation in Germany's EEC enlargement policy. It demonstrated that variation in the German foreign policy took place after a clearly defined shift in distribution of power, and consequently, in a realm of security had occurred. The research thus doubts negative criticism about neorealism as a tool for understanding state foreign behavior by initiating inquiry into the direct interaction between the distribution of power in the international system and state's security needs. It also advances the literature on neorealist theories by shifting their application away from war to cooperation. Furthermore, after this study it is now possible to conclude on which of the neorealist theories has the most potential regarding application to foreign policy analysis. From the test' results I recommend defensive realism as a theory which has grater potential of explanatory power. vi vii To Alexander viii ix Aknowladgements Professor Alessandro Colombo (Università degli Studi di Milano), my Ph.D. supervisor, deserves grateful thanks for his contributions of time and ideas to make my Ph.D. experience productive. I am also thankful for the excellent example he has gave me as a successful political analyst. Professor Rainer Baumann (University of Bremen) and Professor Ulrike Liebert (University of Bremen) offered advices, comments and very useful suggestions and for this I am grateful. Professor Timm Beichelt (Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)) merits a special mention for suggesting that I conduct some research on Germany's European Union enlargement policy. Professor Paolo Martelli (Università degli Studi di Milano) and Dr. Alessandro Vitale (Università degli Studi di Milano) have been sources of good advice and collaboration during tough times in the Ph.D. pursuit. Dr. Henning Riecke (German Council on Foreign Relations) contributed immensely to my research time in Berlin. x Mrs. Anne-Marie Smith and her colleagues at the NATO Archives and Mrs. Jacqueline Pforr, Head of NATO Parliamentary Assembly Library, in Brussels provided me with beneficial guiding towards newly declassified documents. I also thank Mrs. Elodie-Cécile Marrel who welcomed me to the reading room of Archives Historiques du Conseil in Brussels. I have appreciated the camaraderie and expertise of my colleague Björn Fleischer (University of Bremen) who gave me methodological advice early on and postdoc Andrea Carati (Università degli Studi di Milano) who supported me in the situations when I needed help.