Layered ensemble model for short-term traffic flow forecasting with outlier detection

Amr Abdullatif, Stefano Rovetta, Francesco Masulli
2016 2016 IEEE 2nd International Forum on Research and Technologies for Society and Industry Leveraging a better tomorrow (RTSI)  
Real time traffic forecasting is a necessary requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. This paper focuses on short-term traffic flow forecasting by taking into consideration both spatial (road links) and temporal (lag or past traffic flow values) information. We propose a Layered Ensemble Model (LEM) which combines Artificial Neural Networks and Graded Possibilistic Clustering obtaining an accurate forecast of
more » ... urate forecast of the traffic flow rates with outlier detection. Experimentation has been carried out on two different data sets. The former was obtained from real UK motorway and the later was obtained from simulated traffic flow on a street network in Genoa (Italy). The proposed LEM model for short-term traffic forecasting provides promising results and given the ability for outlier detection, accuracy, robustness of the proposed approach, it can be fruitful integrated in traffic flow management systems.
doi:10.1109/rtsi.2016.7740573 dblp:conf/rtsi/AbdullatifRM16 fatcat:lcdew6dnzvbktar36taapgjqp4