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This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N 1 =227, N 2 =126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030? Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of thedblp:conf/iscram/GerholdH15 fatcat:gxzmzn2rx5hjlcalq5pddxv67y