Influence Of Expectations Of Economic Agents On Parameters Of Cyclic Development Of Economy At Various Types Of Structural Disbalance

R. Safiullin Marat, A. Elshin Leonid, I. Prygunova Maria
2017 Zenodo  
Development of social and economic systems is characterized by cyclic dynamics of the changes happening in them. These changes affect various parties and levels of an economic system, its structure, forming a number of regularities. Among them regularities of development of economic cycles in various types of economic nonequilibrium systems are of considerable inter-est. Not smaller interest is received to what factors exert impact on structure of reproduction processes, and also on processes
more » ... adoption of decisions by the main economic agents. The last, in turn, in many respects determine the nature and dynamics of the shift phase in economic cycles. During the research the author's technique allowed to predict the shift phase in short-term economic cycles which with rather high probability and accuracy permits predicting dynamics of cyclic development of economy for the short-term period. Seven subindexes characterizing institutional and tactical shifts in the social and economic systems participating in development of the integrated indicator (an index of the advancing development) estimating expectations of economic agents with use of a method of the taxonomical analysis, allowing determining most authentically the specific weight of each of the received subindexes entered in this model. As a result of the realized estimates and calculations the conclusion was drawn that the largest level of impact on parameters of cyclic development of market economy, by means of generation of the corresponding phase shifts, the factors characterizing the level of development of a human capital, social well-being, and also research potential have. Possible reasons for a main hypothesis about the determining nature of influence of expectations of economic agents on structural and economic shifts of economy the analysis of their influence on parameters of an industrial development in case of various types of an economic disbalance is performed. As the main approaches promoting carrying out this stage of work the m [...]
doi:10.5281/zenodo.220866 fatcat:c4zir67qafgxzhyl7jemkcw54m