Relationship between COVID-19 death toll doubling time and national BCG vaccination policy [article]

Yutaka Akiyama, Takashi Ishida
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
In this manuscript, we showed a statistically significant difference of the doubling times of the death toll between the group of countries with national universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination and the group without it for recent years. Based on a statistical test, the distributions of the doubling time of these two groups were significantly different (p=0.004). Miller et al. reported the relationship between BCG vaccination and mortality for COVID-19 based on deaths per million
more » ... abitants. However, they did not take into account the differences in COVID-19 detection rates among the countries and the epidemic stages of the countries. Therefore we used a doubling time of the death toll as a more stable indicator instead. We also investigated the dependency of the BCG strains. Among the 32 BCG-vaccinated countries, the median doubling time of the four countries using "Tokyo 172-1" strain (Japan, Iraq, Malaysia, and Pakistan) was 6.8, and that of the other 28 vaccinated countries was 3.8. Their distributions were also significantly different (p=0.024).
doi:10.1101/2020.04.06.20055251 fatcat:3qaoas6wajg7hkjlqbmrxrkt4e