Price Stability and the Ecb's Monetary Policy Strategy

Christian Bordes, Laurent Clerc
2004 Social Science Research Network  
not have a knock-on effect on longer-term inflation expectations. 2) Since 1999, analysis has not rejected the hypothesis of price stationarity around a deterministic trend, which is a sign of longterm stability in the inflation rate and an absence of price-level uncertainty. IV -In terms of monetary policy strategy, the clarification provided at the end of the ECB Governing Council meeting on 8 May 2003 was useful in three respects in light of the conclusions of this report. -The distinction
more » ... awn between "economic analysis", which refers to the New Keynesian analytical framework, and "monetary analysis" is a relevant one, because it makes it possible to anchor short-, medium-and long-term inflation expectations simultaneously. -It solves a problem in communicating and even implementing the single monetary policy strategy. This strategy was based on a presentation of the two "pillars" as alternative explanations for inflation, which could end up giving money a role in stabilising short-term anticipations that it would be unable to play. In fact, the two approaches are complements to each other rather than alternatives. Money plays a decisive role in anchoring long-term inflationary expectations, while the New Keynesian framework is adequate for analysing short-term expectations. This means that the change in the structure of the ECB President's introductory statement following each Governing Council meeting will fully reflect the complementary nature of the two analytical frameworks. -Finally, the anchoring of inflation expectations stemming from the announcement of the reference value and from the European Central Bank's credibility ensures that there is no long-term pricelevel uncertainty. This means that monetary policy does not necessarily have to compensate for a deviation from the inflation path in the short term, since the reversion to the equilibrium path should be achieved via expectations.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1727385 fatcat:crcyvngpkrcsto5jce2wbwhffe