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Sources of Uncertainty for Monte Carlo Modelling with Bayesian Analysis for Sub-Saharan Off-Grid Solar PV Systems
2018 IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica
This paper outlines a statistical modelling methodology for predicting sustainability of PV systems installed in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a sustainability analysis of an example PV system in Malawi, 3.5 years after installation. Social and economic risks to project sustainability are identified (through expert survey and community consultation) and the methodology for including these qualitative risks is described. The project sustainability results are given in terms of probable systemdoi:10.1109/powerafrica.2018.8521130 fatcat:b5fox4cx4zdgro77s7rjhmtv7a