The relationship between unemployment and immigration with linear and nonlinear causality tests: Evidence from the United States

Alper Aslan, Buket Altinöz
2020 Economic Journal of Emerging Markets  
This paper investigates the relationship between the immigrant population and the unemployment rate in the United States for the period 1980-2013. For this purpose, firstly, coefficients of long and short run relations are estimated by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and then, linear and nonlinear causality tests are applied. Findings/Originality: According to ARDL test results, there is a positive effect of immigration to the United States on the unemployment rate in the
more » ... ent rate in the long run. In other words, while there is no statistically significant relationship between the two variables in the short run, an increase in the immigrant population increases the unemployment rate by 0.14 percent in the long run. The bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto linear causality test results imply that there is no causal relationship between immigration and unemployment. Also, there is no nonlinear relationship between immigration population and unemployment rate in the United States.
doi:10.20885/ejem.vol12.iss1.art2 fatcat:z7scatgtq5adhlz5lxxv2onp6q