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We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILC)--unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions--for mid-2014 using predictions generated from an innovative ensemble model that is composed of several split-population duration regression models. This approach uses distinct thematic models, combining them into one aggregate forecast developed on the basis of their predictive accuracy and uniqueness. The data are based on 45 ILCs that occurred fromarXiv:1409.7105v1 fatcat:g3y5rwiqb5bejdifroxkpamzwm