Executive Summary U.S. and Gulf Arab leaders are concerned that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, the result will be a significant change in the regional balance of power. For several decades, Iran has used a strategy of low-level aggression against its neighbors, relying on terrorism, subversion, and limited military strikes. Careful of the fact that its victims could escalate militarily in response, Iran has developed a range of capabilities and techniques to strengthen its deterrence. In

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... g so, Iran gains additional freedom to commit low-level aggression and thereby coerce its neighbors. A principal concern is that nuclear deterrence could substantially increase this freedom.