River discharge assessment under a changing climate in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand by using MRI-AGCM3.2S

Supattana Wichakul, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba, Kazuaki Yorozu
2015 Hydrological Research Letters  
Several studies have shown the change of future river flow projection in the Chao Phraya River basin; however, these researches focused on the natural river flow. In this study, to obtain a realistic river flow projection for the Chao Phraya River basin, bias corrected GCM outputs were given to a regional distributed hydrological model including dam operation and flood inundation components. The projected river flow data was analyzed to assess the change of drought and flood risk. The GCM
more » ... s used were precipitation and evapotranspiration projected by MRI-AGCM3.2S, which is a 20 km spatial resolution general circulation model developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency. The results obtained from the projected river flow at the Nakhon Sawan station are as follows: 1) mean monthly discharge tends to increase in both the near-future and far-future projection periods for all months; 2) low-flow exceeding 99% of a mean daily flow duration curve for the near-future and far-future periods tends to decrease; and 3) a flood frequency analysis using the annual maximum daily flow series indicates that the flood risk in the near-future and far-future projection periods becomes higher.
doi:10.3178/hrl.9.84 fatcat:vyxk7pznn5hmje2xf5wgncdqcu