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To move upwind, sailing vessels have to cross the wind by tacking. During this manoeuvre distance made good may be lost and especially smaller vessels may struggle to complete a tack in averse wind and wave conditions. A decision for the best tack manoeuvre needs to be made based on weather and available tack implementations. This paper develops an adaptive probabilistic tack manoeuvre decision method. The order of attempting different tacking strategies is based on previous success within aarXiv:1903.06677v1 fatcat:sl7vphsbb5bybgoupjeg4nameq