Logistic regression as instrument for analyzing influence of remittances on economic growth
Логістична регресія як інструмент аналізування впливу переказів на економічне зростання

Ihor Oleskiv, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Diana Mirzoieva, Lviv Polytechnic National University
2020 Management and Entrepreneurship in Ukraine: the stages of formation and problems of development  
In the article, the influence of remittances on economics growth in Ukraine was researched. In order to conduct the research the logistics regression was applied. Volumes of consumption, export and import were included into the logistics model as variables, which contribute to calculation of GDP. By changing remittances, we identified their level, which will lead to GDP growth. Specifically, it was found out that economic growth would be achieved if remittances will increase by 2% ceteris
more » ... s. Problem statement and its relevance Growth of GDP is an important issue, which was widely investigated in the literature. There are a significant number of research of economics growth conducted for developed and developing countries. At the same time, the number of research conducted for transition economies are quite limited. Moreover, the research of economic growth usually lacks forecasting. While researching the problem we should consider the issues related to the fact that economic growth for transition economies is strongly related to the volume remittances. Specifically for Ukraine share of remittances in GDP reached almost 11% in 2019 (World Bank, 2020). Consequently, their impact on national economy will depend on domestic conditions and macroeconomic parameters, which are related to remittances. For instance, from prospect of additional source of income remittances can affect volumes of consumption, volumes of trade and, finally, growth of gross domestic product. As the result, the aim of the current article is to develop the method, which permits to identify the volume of remittances necessary to achieve economic growths.
doi:10.23939/smeu2020.02.127 fatcat:vs24aokmcffydj5yaxnmnf4xuq