Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12-13 January 2011 Etna eruption

A. Vicari, G. Ganci, B. Behncke, A. Cappello, M. Neri, C. Del Negro
2011 Geophysical Research Letters  
Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the
more » ... other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas. OPEN SUBJECT AREAS: GEOLOGY VOLCANOLOGY
doi:10.1029/2011gl047545 fatcat:zcobvuujznakjf3hrze2hwp2qi