Data-Driven Load Modeling and Forecasting of Residential Appliances [article]

Yuting Ji, Elizabeth Buechler, Ram Rajagopal
2018 arXiv   pre-print
The expansion of residential demand response programs and increased deployment of controllable loads will require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe the probabilistic nature of residential appliance demand, and an algorithm for short-term load forecasting. Model parameters are estimated directly from power consumption data using scalable statistical learning methods. Case studies performed using
more » ... ed 1-minute power consumption data from several types of appliances demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for load forecasting and anomaly detection.
arXiv:1810.03727v1 fatcat:x3tbblnhwvaungghjpnzckyvaa