AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FISH FOOD SECURITY IN EGYPT

Youness A.S.
2020 Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences  
The problem of fish food security is represented in insufficient strategic stocks of fish, especially in light of the increasing demand for fish, and lower production than consumption. The research mainly targeted the study of the situation of fish food security in Egypt, in addition to a set of sub-goals, which are the most important that the estimation of both the strategic stock of fish and fish food security coefficient in Egypt, studying of the most important factors affecting fish food
more » ... ecting fish food security, studying of future expectations for fish food security, This is in addition to studying the problems that Obstruct the continued increase in fish production. The research relied on achieving goals on the use of qualitative statistical methods and economic equations for estimating both strategic stocks and security coefficient for fish. As Quantitative statistical methods were used, which are represented in using the simple and multiple regression method to estimate the functions of consumption, production, import and export of Egyptian fish, as well as food security coefficient in order to determine the most important variables that affect it by building an econometric model that explains the determinants of food security of fish. The double logarithmic model was the best model used in terms of economic logic and statistical significance, and Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast production, consumption, imports and food security coefficients for fish until 2025. In addition to using the statistical method, One-way Anova- Analysis of Variance, to test the differences between a number of independent groups that represent problems that impede the continued increase in fish production, as well as the use of the least significant difference method (L.S.D) to arrange the elements of each problem. By estimating the growth rate of fish production and consumption, the fish food gap and the average per capita share, it was found that the growth rate of each of them took an increasin [...]
doi:10.21608/ajs.2020.32792.1220 doaj:19b7cb4227e64739a357e52629899861 fatcat:7px7hl7x5nctza64j7auktlfqe