Evaluation of predicted Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) quarantine length in the United States utilizing degree-day and agent-based models

Travis Collier, Nicholas Manoukis
2018 F1000Research  
Invasions by pest insects pose a significant threat to agriculture worldwide. In the case of incursions on the US mainland, where it is not Ceratitis capitata officially established, repeated detections are followed by quarantines and treatments to eliminate the invading population. However, it is difficult to accurately set quarantine duration because non-detection may not mean the pest is eliminated. Most programs extend quarantine lengths past the last fly detection by calculating the amount
more » ... of time required for 3 generations to elapse under a thermal unit accumulation development model ("degree day"). A newer approach is to use an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) to explicitly simulate population demographics and elimination. Here, predicted quarantine lengths for 11 sites in the continental United States are evaluated using both approaches. Results indicate a strong seasonality in quarantine length, with longer predictions in the second half of the year compared with the first; this pattern is more extreme in degree day predictions compared with ABS. Geographically, quarantine lengths increased with latitude, though this was less pronounced under the ABS. Variation in quarantine lengths for particular times and places was dramatically larger for degree day than ABS, generally spiking in the middle of the year for degree day and peaking in second half of the year for ABS. 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doi:10.12688/f1000research.12817.2 fatcat:sy4zxezhubhrljktamau5wq2fu