Estimating Trends in Non-stationary Quasi-periodic Extreme Time Series and the Return Values

Takashi IZUMIYA, Horoaki KATO
2014 Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B2 (Coastal Engineering)  
Trends analysis for the annual maximum storm water levels and significant wave heights was conducted using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the record-breaking test. The trend test revealed that the extreme vales of the storm water level at Toyama and Maizuru have an increasing trend. The extreme significant wave heights at Hachinohe also show a tendency to increase. It is found that the storm water levels and wave heights at Hachinohe have increasing breaks of record. The estimation method for
more » ... imation method for evaluating the return values in non-stationary quasi-periodic extreme time series was developed in which the scale and location parameter in extreme distribution function are in a linear manner with time. The estimated 2-year, 5-year and 10-year return values showed moderately changes in accordance with the observed extreme data.
doi:10.2208/kaigan.70.i_106 fatcat:q3gzbywdxfebzggria4kvsmbny